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Here’s what we’ve learned so far about what viewers made of the debate and the candidates’ performances: First of all, how did viewers in our poll think the candidates did on Thursday night? Thursday night’s debate drew about 14 million television viewers, which is more viewers than both nights of the second debate, but still slightly fewer than those who tuned into watch the first debate. So after Ipsos polled voters before and after the debate, we calculated the change in candidates’ net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating). Our latest forecast for how many pledged delegates each candidate will win after all states have voted. And if our poll with Ipsos is indicative of voters’ reactions, then the needle didn’t move all that much. The District of Columbia will vote on June 2nd. But for those of you who preferred the two-night approach, you might be in luck — the fourth debate, set for Oct. 15 and potentially Oct. 16, might be split across two nights, since at least 11 candidates have qualified so far. Permalink, About | Copyright | Privacy | Terms of service | Contact. Though respondents to the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll thought Biden’s debate performance was less impressive than Warren’s, it wasn’t because he didn’t get a chance to talk. We’re also charting how many delegates, on average, each candidate is projected to have pledged to them at each point in the primary season, along with a range of possible delegate counts. I think the investigation is related to data theft, Oh, I see. Create new account | My Profile | My Account | My Bookmarks | My Inbox | Help | Log in, Back to top Alert abuse Link here The five latest polls of the state seem to disagree, but our forecast has Sen. Bernie Sanders as a … But Most VPs Have To. RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 — Democratic Delegate Count Send us an email. We also asked likely Democratic primary voters how favorably they felt about each candidate both before and after the debate, and, notably, both Biden and Sanders had very high favorability ratings going in. Bernie Sanders dropped out April 8, making Joe Biden the presumptive nominee. Biden Had To Fight For The Presidential Nomination. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. This state releases its results after Bernie Sanders dropped out on April 8. 4:08 PM. The latest political polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. Number of words candidates spoke in the third Democratic debate. And some of the candidates who spoke the most, such as Biden and Warren, seemed to avoid Trump, each mentioning the president only once. Bloomberg received his first and second polls that could qualify him for the December Democratic primary debate, but with the deadline on Thursday, he would need two more polls and to hit the fundraising threshold in order to make the stage. Biden and Sanders voters are the most likely to say they've made their choice (46% and 48%, respectively). By this measure, O’Rourke and Warren were the biggest standouts, though Buttigieg and Booker also made a positive impression. An initial wave of polling was conducted before the debates began, with a follow-up wave after the debate. @ellawinthrop, 2020 Election (987 posts) And here’s more great post-debate analysis: Finally, check out the rest of our debate coverage: Additional contributions from Aaron Bycoffe. The first wave of the poll was conducted from March 9 to March 13 among a general population sample of adults, with 2,601 respondents who say they are likely to vote in their state’s Democratic primary or caucus. Biden picked up a little over 3 points in potential support while Sanders experienced a 2 point decrease, but neither change was particularly big, unlike some of the gains and drops we saw in previous debates. Finally, we asked respondents to estimate each Democrat’s chances of defeating President Trump, from 0 percent (no chance) to 100 percent (certain to win). Design and development by Ryan Best, Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Chris Groskopf, Ella Koeze, Jasmine Mithani, Emily Scherer, Julia Wolfe and Yutong Yuan. For the first time this cycle, there was just one debate night, and only 10 candidates made the cut — so now we’re trying to make sense of what happened when the front-runners shared the stage. We’re also showing the distribution of simulated final pledged delegate counts in the table, where taller bars mean a more likely outcome. Just like the Romney people and the fat Unskewed Polls guy living in his mother's basement in 2012. Bloomberg starts the race with tepid feelings among all Americans following last month's kickoff of his campaign. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. A very slim majority still say not to impeach Trump should not be impeached and removed from office (51%), while 45% say he should be, steady since late November. If they can make them believe there's a chance that BS can still pull off a miracle on Super Tuesday, the $$$$$$ will keep flowing. We’ve Had 56 Statewide Elections During The Pandemic. The Monmouth University poll was conducted December 4-8 among a random national sample of 838 registered voters, including 384 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Joe Biden (422) © 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Even for those whose debate performance stood out — like Biden and Castro, who got relatively poor grades, or O’Rourke, who got a strong rating — there was little change in how many likely primary voters said they were considering voting for them. Most candidates saw some change in the share of likely Democratic primary voters who were considering supporting them, though not all changes were positive. CNN's Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report. But for most candidates, the numbers stayed pretty much the same as they had been before the debate. In addition to counting the words spoken by candidates, we also tracked the number of times each candidate mentioned President Trump by name: How often Trump was mentioned by candidates participating in the third Democratic debate. Additional contributions by Laura Bronner. No other candidate received above 1% in the new poll. Change in net favorability for candidates in a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll taken before and after the third Democratic primary debate. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. Washington (CNN)Two new national polls released Tuesday show former Vice President Joe Biden atop the 2020 Democratic primary field. Laura Bronner is FiveThirtyEight’s quantitative editor. Cory Booker (45). which , as it turns out, was kind of a big deal and NOT Hillary's fault despite their stance. Another way to assess who won last night’s debate is to see who convinced more voters to at least think about voting for them. Elizabeth Warren (222) No other candidate qualified for the debate stage with this poll. 2020 Democratic Primary Debates (70) FiveThirtyEight’s model simulates the primary season thousands of times to find the most likely outcome for each candidate, accounting for the margin of their wins and losses, plus the possibility that a trailing candidate might drop out. That was true after the debate as well. But We’re Way Past Usual. Booker and Warren, the next two most prolific speakers, were about 600 and 750 words behind, respectively. Sep. 13, 2019, Democrats Weren't Sure Who They Are On DNC Night 2. Sanders’s net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) rose almost 4 points and Biden’s rose 1 point. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the two candidates who are being considered by the most voters in our poll — Biden and Warren — also tended to draw a high proportion of other candidates’ supporters, too. 538 National Democratic Primary Polls (Hillary Group) A number of posters have been indicating that Bernie has almost caught up to Hillary in the national poll. All rights reserved. I put up the same poll posts on GD-P and they generated little interest; no body commented. The debate doesn’t seem to have been much of a game-changer. Democratic voters would still prefer a candidate who could beat President Donald Trump (56%) over someone with whom they completely agree on the issues but would have a harder time winning (30%), which has remained steady since earlier this year. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/national-primary-polls/democratic/, Let the BS crowd live in their little fantasy world, the magical thinking has gotten pretty bad. Going into the debate, voters thought Biden was the most likely to win in the general election. The same people were surveyed again from Sept. 12 to Sept 13; 2202 responded to the second wave. Here’s What We Learned From Them. I'm hearing more and more from those in the campaign who repeat the Bernie position that his programs will be enacted because of public pressure. Hmmmm. For this study, the same group of respondents is interviewed before and after the debate to track whether and how their answers changed. Mostly, it's how they WANT it to work, not what is there and has been for 480+ years. Although the second-place candidate won … How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics. In terms of raw debate grades — respondents graded candidates on a four-point scale (higher scores are better) — Biden did score slightly higher than Sanders, but respondents rated both of their performances pretty highly and both were viewed pretty favorably by respondents before the debate. To keep the donations flowing you have to juice your donors. Is that what's being investigated? She also saw a downtick in. He's right where everyone expected him to be - mired in the 30s. The Virgin Islands will vote on June 6th. For the likely Democratic primary voter subset of respondents, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. We once again partnered with Ipsos to track how the debate affects likely primary voters’ feelings about the candidates. So far, Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, businessman Tom Steyer, and Yang have qualified. The most recent polls for the 35 Senate races contested during the 2020 elections. Respondents’ average rating of Biden’s and Sanders’s ability to defeat Trump was mostly unchanged. Scores were then averaged to create an overall favorability index for each candidate. The same people were surveyed again from Sept. 12 to Sept 13; 2202 responded to the second wave. Percent chance each top Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 9 a.m. Eastern on … We will continue to add results from the ongoing primaries, but this forecast has stopped updating. Despite polling at 5% in both Monmouth and Quinnipiac (after not being asked in most polls last month), around a quarter of Americans have a favorable opinion of him, 54% unfavorable, with 40% favorable and 39% unfavorable among Democratic voters, according to the Monmouth poll.

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