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Empirically, the usage of collection agencies has tended to slightly lead overall conditions in the Credit Managers Index, which we utilize extensively to gauge non-bank lending conditions. In economics, a Goldilocks economy sustains moderate economic growth and low inflation, which allows a market-friendly monetary policy. Hence we address this upside risk to credit specifically in the third section of our piece. And while volcanoes have long been pointed to as a source of carbon dioxide, alone they cannot balance out the excess uptake of carbon dioxide by large mountain ranges.

How could we be wrong? "Dear little, While Davis is willing to buy into companies that are cutting dividends, his real focus is, At the right time he lay on his surfboard looking over his shoulder searching for what he calls a ", In order to succeed, humanitarian efforts require a ", The planet is smack in the middle of what astronomers call the, … with nearly 500 exoplanets under their belts, astronomers still haven't found an Earth-size planet in a star's habitable zone—also known as the, To qualify as "Earthlike," a planet must not only fall within a reasonable approximation of Earth's composition, mass, gravity, and spin. As we concluded back in early June in our conversation "Voltage spike", the MDGA trade (Make Duration Great Again) has made a very good comeback as indicated by the ETF ZROZ we follow, which delivered a 6% return over four weeks (not too shabby of a performance). Our preference for 7- 10 year US IG credit has been a decent trade for us since the beginning of the year. The strong reading in May brings the year-to-date total inflows to high grade funds/ETFs to $134.7bn, 207% over the same period last year. Lastly, sector differences make US high-yield vulnerable relative to US investment grade. 3-month implied volatility on HYG has collapsed to near record lows (Figure 4), with 90% ATM options on Sept '17 contracts costing only 20bps. When it comes to Goldilocks principle and the much talked about risk-parity strategies, the ongoing low volatility regime as the one that can be inferred by looking at the MOVE index on Bloomberg (The Merrill lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options which are weighted on the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year contracts) clearly indicates a Goldilocks environment for these strategies currently. This is why life is able to survive," said Mark Torres, lead author of a study disclosing the findings that appears in Nature on March 20. Well-spoken! To reiterate, we look at US aggregate non-financial corporate profits from the US GDP report, which is a broader measure of pre-tax earnings than that from common equity or credit market indices. US high-yield spreads are 392bps, a mere 280bps wider than US investment-grade spreads of 112bps (Figure 2). When it comes to us sticking our neck out and praising the Investment Grade long duration credit game, we were pleased to read that UBS in its recent Macro Keys note from the 21st of June entitled "Is the high-yield rally hitting a wall?" - Sallust. At some point, that would put us in the position of having to quickly reverse course to slow the economy.
If 12-month forward WTI hits the $40-45 range, this could cause a more rapid re-pricing as breakeven WTI levels will be breached for HY E&P firms. Instead, it turns out that "fresh" rock exposed by uplift also emits carbon through a chemical weathering process, which replenishes the atmospheric carbon dioxide at a comparable rate. Fast forward to today and investors are downplaying the likelihood of fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, inflation has been running somewhat below the Fed's goal of 2 percent for the past few years. Concerns over the impact of a Fed balance sheet roll off should be mitigated by recent performance; 30-year Treasury yields have fallen 10bps since the Fed suggested a faster balance sheet contraction than expected last Wednesday. One can clearly see this dynamic in the relationship between BB rated US high-yield (average maturity of 7 years) and 10+yr BBB-rated US investment-grade credit (Figure 3).

Recently, some special transitory factors have been pulling inflation down. This effect was observed in infants, who are less likely to look away from a visual sequence when the current event is moderately probable, as measured by an idealized learning model (Phillips curve). by Lisbeth Heilesen, Aarhus University Investors have settled on the view that growth is still good enough to keep credit spreads stable and earn carry. The US GDP report next Thursday will be instructive in zeroing in on the specific sectors driving the weakness in Q1 GDP-based earnings. goldy "golden in color" (Middle English, from gold gold entry 1 + -y -y entry 1) + locks, plural of lock entry 1; in plant names as translation of Chrysocoma, genus name, and auricomus, specific epithet, from the character Goldilocks in the fairy tale "Goldilocks and the Three Bears," who chooses Baby Bear's chair, porridge, and bed (over Papa and Mama Bear's) because it is "just right". From this perspective, the current state of affairs among company pension funds is particularly disheartening. The Goldilocks Principle also infests ecology, and that is why so much modern ecological research segues nicely into bogus climate ‘science.’ The researchers assume that whatever they are studying either is at, or was at (depending on the researcher’s whim) a ‘just right’ state of harmony with nature until evil humans came along and upset the delicate balance. - source Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Meaning of Goldilocks principle. Or view hourly updated newsfeeds in your RSS reader: Keep up to date with the latest news from ScienceDaily via social networks: Tell us what you think of ScienceDaily -- we welcome both positive and negative comments. Could Electromagnetic Fields Treat Diabetes? I don't know if it was too many times crying wolf, but we have hit a point where markets are ignoring extremely hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. There are perhaps nascent signs of fatigue already building. All life known in those days was confined to certain limits: no colder than Antarctica (penguins), no hotter than scalding water (desert lizards), no higher than the clouds (eagles), no … Like many other large mountain ranges, such as the great Himalayas, the Andes began to form during the Cenozoic period, which began about 60 million years ago and happened to coincide with a major perturbation in the cycling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Low solvency ratios translate into staggering shortfalls in dollar terms. Also, something the Goldilocks story told us, you don't want to wait for too long for the three bears to return. Instead, the cardinal rule of docking is: Never approach a dock any faster than you're willing to hit it.
A significant portion of unfunded company pensions could end as the taxpayer's responsibility via the statutory backstop provided by the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC), a U.S. government agency." Looking at the sudden violent dump in CDS protection for some issuers within the Itraxx Subordinated Financials CDS index due to HIS Markit revising index rules which will include in next roll UK and Swiss banks in the new index Series at HoldCo Level for the Senior and Subordinated Financial Indices, we reminded ourselves for our title analogy of the Goldilocks principle. Scientists have long known that "fresh" rock pushed to the surface via mountain formation effectively acts as a kind of sponge, soaking up the greenhouse gas CO2. The Goldilocks principle in biology—fine-tuning the 'just right' signal load. But is this a prudent risk to hold? My goal is to keep the economic expansion on a sound footing that can be sustained for as long as possible. Absolute returns for US IG will not be as strong going forward, as declines in Treasury yields may have moved too far, too fast. Delivered to your inbox!

S&P 500 returned almost 12% in 2016, while 10y Treasury yield rose 16 bps. This latter factor is significant enough to matter and has not received enough attention in our view. US IG exposure is highly tilted to financials, a sector that can do well when our credit signals are flashing yellow, but not red (Figure 7). Financial support for ScienceDaily comes from advertisements and referral programs, where indicated. Note: Content may be edited for style and length. "Re-read the paragraph about docking in a harbour. What we find of interest is that in cognitive science and developmental psychology, the Goldilocks effect or principle refers to an infant's preference to attend to events which are neither too simple nor too complex according to their current representation of the world, same goes with central bankers. During the recession and recovery, jump-starting and speeding the recovery required historically low interest rates. The last thing any of us want is to undermine the hard-won gains we've made since the dark days of 2008 and 2009, when it seemed like the U.S. and world economies were on the verge of collapse. "Harmony makes small things grow, lack of it makes great things decay." Macro and Credit - In the current inning of the credit cycle stealing third base in High Yield isn't worth it, Final chart - US Corporate Pensions? The numerical value of Goldilocks principle in Chaldean Numerology is: 9, The numerical value of Goldilocks principle in Pythagorean Numerology is: 2. https://www.definitions.net/definition/Goldilocks+principle. On top of that, the rising cohorts of retiring "baby boomers" is in similar fashion to Mr. Blonde's abilities in Tarantino's movie is inflicting additional acute pain to pension funds having to face rising "capital calls". After testing each of the three items, Goldilocks determines that one of them is always too much in one extreme, one is too much in the opposite extreme, and one is "just right". University of Southern California. STANDS4 LLC, 2020. “Goldilocks.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Goldilocks. We continue to see a pullback from fixed income and moderate re-risking among corporate pensions.

While human-made atmospheric carbon dioxide increases are currently driving significant changes in Earth's climate, the geologic system has kept things balanced for million of years. 7-10year US investment-grade credit has returned 4.6% YTD, in-line with HY returns of 4.6% YTD. While it might not be the right time to do like Goldilocks, to waking up with a fright to reality when she sees and hears the bears and jump from the bed and run away as fast as you can, but it does mean that you should take notice of the change of tone of the doves turning as of late into hawks, at least that's what the US flattening of the yield curve is telling you we think. This is yet another example of a market that has grown far too complacent with credit risk. ScienceDaily shares links with sites in the. "Our presence on Earth is dependent upon this carbon cycle. "The Earth is a bit like a big, natural recycler," West said. ScienceDaily. No wonder General Motors (NYSE:GM) will raise $3 Billion in debt to fund pensions.

- Warren Buffett, Contrarian, debt, Investment Advisor, Macro.

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