registered voters by party affiliation
In Oklahoma, one of the reddest of states over the last few decades, the party registration advantage did not finally flip from Democratic to Republican until a few years ago during Barack Obama’s presidency.
Gen Xers and Baby Boomers have seen less change in their partisan preferences and remain closely divided between the two major parties. The percentage goes up to 88% if one removes the South, the one area of the country where party registration is a lagging indicator of the fortunes of the two major parties. And Gen X women are now almost as likely as Millennial women to associate with the Democratic Party (57% to 60%). If they did register by party, Texas, Georgia, and Indiana would almost certainly add to the Republican total; the industrial states probably less so.
Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party. The registration trend line in California is a microcosm of sorts of party registration in the nation as whole. Among both white non-evangelical Protestants and black Protestants, there are only small differences in partisanship between those who attend church monthly and those who attend less frequently. (Data on religious affiliation dates to 2008; prior to that, Pew Research Center asked a different question about religious affiliation that is not directly comparable to its current measure.). Eight-in-ten white evangelicals who attend religious services at least a few times a month associate with the GOP, compared with 70% of those who attend services less often. And there is some sentiment that a voter’s party identification may mean less than it once did, as the number of individuals who register as “Independent” (or “No Party Preference,” “Unaffiliated,” or whatever other nom de plume the individual states prefer) steadily grows.
Yet registered voters in both parties appear to be widely engaged. The Democratic Party’s advantage with more highly educated voters has grown over the past decade and is wider than it was in both 2016 and 2012. He also overcame Democratic registration advantages in West Virginia and Pennsylvania to win both.
Still, urban voters in the South are much more likely than rural Southern voters to align with the Democratic Party (55% vs. 33%). Among Gen X voters, the Democratic Party holds a narrow 48% to 45% advantage in leaned party affiliation. Both groups are far more Democratic in their partisan preferences than in 1994, though the movement toward the Democratic Party has been slightly greater among women than men. The gender gap in party identification is as large as at any point in the past two decades: 56% of women align with the Democratic Party, compared with 42% of men.
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